News & Resources

Market Analysis

Latest Insights
Press Releases
Latest Insights

Daily Market Analysis
1 Outta 2 Ain’t Bad

by Sean Coakley | December 5, 2016

– Italy Votes No – EUR Rises

– UK High Court To Begin Brexit Hearings

– US Stocks Poised to Set Record on Open

 

For presumed members of the global elite, 2016 hasn’t exactly been a great year on the political front. As a wave of populist resentment has threatened the global establishment, market participants have had to contend with spikes in market volatility along with uncertainty as to the shape of the emerging world order.  This weekend was no different, as despite a favourable outcome in the Austrian election, last night’s failure of proposed constitutional reforms has cost the Italian PM, Matteo Renzi his job and now calls into the question the future of Italy’s embattled banking sector and relationship with the EU, as right-wing populists in Italy see this as their chance to gain power.

The euro is now trading higher after bouncing back from post-referendum lows, the pound has also gained ground on the greenback while the yen has notched lower.  Outside of currencies, it looks as if the prevailing Trump Trade has begun to ebb with both equities and the US dollar flat, this leaves markets now searching for a new narrative to drive price action. Despite this oil and commodities are still moving nicely in the wake of last week’s OPEC announcement, this has allowed the loonie to take flight while its commodity sensitive counterparts in New Zealand and Australia remain on the back foot.

With the market shrugging off the latest political developments, there is the potential that we see a shift from the more sentiment-driven trading, that has been pervasive as of late to a more data-driven market. With the United States still putting out impressive employment and production metrics along with Governor Dudely speaking later today and the FOMC rate announcement next week, there is a good chance that the latest round of US dollar weakness is short lived. USD buyers, Beware.

 

To receive our market analysis direct to your inbox daily subscribe here

“Cambridge Global Payments” is a trade name, which in this document refers specifically to one or more of these legal entities: Cambridge Mercantile Corp., Cambridge Mercantile Corp. (U.S.A.), Cambridge Mercantile Corp. (Nevada), Cambridge Mercantile (Australia) Pty. Ltd.

Cambridge Global Payments (“Cambridge”) provides this document as general market information subject to: Cambridge’s copyright, and all contract terms in place, if any, between you and the Cambridge entity you have contracted with. This document is based on sources Cambridge considers reliable, but without independent verification. Cambridge makes no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness. Cambridge is not responsible for any errors in or related to the document, or for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. All charts or graphs are from publicly available sources or proprietary data. The information in this document is subject to sudden change without notice.

Cambridge may sell to you and/or buy from you foreign exchange instruments (including spot and/or derivative transactions; both kinds are here called “FXI”s) covered by Cambridge on a principal basis.

This document is NOT: 1) Advice of any kind, or 2) Approved or reviewed by any regulatory authority, or 3) An offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any FXIs, or to participate in any trading strategy.

Before acting on this document, you must consider the appropriateness of the information, based on your objectives, needs and finances. For advice, you must contact someone independent of Cambridge.

Certain FXIs mentioned in this document may be ineligible for sale in some locations, and/or unsuitable for you. Contact your Cambridge representative for further information regarding product availability/suitability before you enter into any FXI contract.

FXIs are volatile and may cause losses. Past performance of a FXI product cannot be relied on to determine future performance.

This document is intended only for persons in Canada, the US, and Australia. This document is not intended for persons in the UK or elsewhere in the EEA. In Australia, this publication has been distributed by Cambridge Mercantile (Australia) Pty. Ltd. (ABN 85 126 642 448, AFSL 351278); for the general information of its customers (as defined in the Corporations Act 2001). This entity makes no representations that the products or services mentioned in this document are available to persons in Australia or are necessarily suitable for any particular person or appropriate in accordance with local law.

Fees may be earned by Cambridge (and its agents) in respect of any business transacted with Cambridge.

The document is intended to be distributed in its entirety. Unless governing law permits otherwise, you must contact the applicable Cambridge if you wish to use Cambridge services to enter a transaction involving any instrument mentioned in this document.

© Copyright 2018, Cambridge Mercantile Corp., ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of Cambridge Mercantile Corp. See www.cambridgefx.com for contact details.