> AU April Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI : 59.6 & 58.6 v. 56.8 & 55.5 exp.
> UK March Retail Sales : 5.4% v. 1.5% exp.
> EU April Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI : 63.3 & 50.3 v. 62.0 & 49.1 exp.
> UK April Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI : 60.7 & 60.1 v. 59.0 & 58.9 exp.
> US April Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI : 60.6 & 63.1 v. 60.0 & 61.6 exp.
Weekend Headlines (BBG)
> The COVID19 situation in India is rapidly worsening as the country struggles to cope with the highest daily case loads since the pandemic began
> The Biden administration began what will be a contentious number of weeks in Congress as they attempt to pass through the US$2.25trillion stimulus plan
What you need to know
The Aussie kicks off what will be a busy week of data around the 0.7700-middle with the Dollar being sold off late Friday as US equity markets rallied sharply to close. Boosting sentiment across markets was the release of the PMI numbers across the world, and as the vaccine rollouts continue the recovery seems to be well on track with the services sectors seeing the most eye popping gains. The DXY is down below the 91.00 handle, and down near 0.5% from Friday’s opening prices. AUD crosses also looking a touch better, most up 0.25% with the exception of the AUDEUR, which is down below 0.6400 as the EURUSD gained on better than expected PMIs.
The S&P500 us up 1% on the session, however there are still major risks on the horizon as COVID19 cases rise across the US despite the strong vaccination efforts. The biggest moves have come in commodity markets, as the bull run continues to build momentum with WTI crude up 0.8% while both Iron Ore and Copper are seeing strong demand up 1.75%-2% on the day. Gold struggled on the positive risk sentiment, down 0.8% for the day, however need to keep a close eye on India and the developing situation as the spike in cases is garnering concern from global leaders.
The Day Ahead
> EU April German IFO Business Climate : 97.8 exp.
> US March Core Durable Goods Orders & Durable Goods Orders : 1.6% & 2.5% exp.
> AU & NZ Bank Holiday – ANZAC Day
Expecting a quiet start to what will be a busy week of economic data, with the highlight coming from Wednesday’s Q1 inflation numbers and the Fed decision early the next morning. The Aussie is still range bound, and with very little on the docket today expecting much of the same unless India posts some more concerning case numbers this afternoon. US durable goods orders on the docket tonight, expecting some good news there, so will be watching US futures markets as they open up this morning as the risk barometer yet again today.
Range for the day : 0.7700 – 0.7765
The 100DMA sitting at 0.7691 is the target on a sustained move lower, however not expecting a break today with the 50/100DMA range we have seen over the past couple of weeks likely to hold yet again. If there will be a break higher, the pair needs to close above 0.7765 to bring the March high of 0.7849 back into play.
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