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Market Wire
The Night Before the Night Before

Karl Schamotta December 23, 2020

Twas the night before the night before Christmas Eve, when all through the markets,

Not a creature was stirring – not even the Marxists;

The long positions were clutched by those who dared,

In hopes that a stimulus bill soon would be there;

The investors were nestled all snug in their beds,

While visions of profits danced in their heads;

And the dollar in her mischief, and the loonie in its trap,

Had just settled their ranges for a long winter’s nap,

When out on the Twitter there arose such a clatter,

I sprang from the bed to see what was the matter.

Away to the sky the greenback flew like a flash,

Throwing the euro in the gutters and giving commodity currencies the bash.

With Congress on a quest to make it snow,

Calling “Disgrace!”, Trump had hinted at a veto,

When, what to these blundering guys should appear,

But an insecure Senate, and imperilled careers,

With a little old driver, so lively and quick,

I knew in a moment it must be faint Mitch.

More rapid than beagles his pursers they came,

And he whistled, and shouted, and called them by name;

“Now, Cruz! now, Thune! now, Collins and Rubio!

On, Romney! on, Hawley! on, Cassidy and Graham!

To the top of the splurge! to the top of the bill!

Now cash away! cash away! cash away all!”

As dry leaves that before the wild hurricane fly,

When they meet with an obstacle, mount to the sky;

So up to the previous tops the market expectations they flew,

With the world full of liquidity, and ridiculous too.

And then, in a twinkling, I heard on the roof

The prancing and pawing of each little hoof.

As I drew in my head, and was turning around,

Down the Bloomberg the data releases came with a bound.

Durable Goods impressed in rising 0.4% – gaining from head to foot,

But Personal Income was all tarnished with ashes and soot;

Falling 1.1% and landing flat on its back,

And Personal Spending dropped 0.4%, showing that savings stayed in the sack.

Initial claims – how they twinkled! Down to 803,000 – how merry!

Some Continuing Claims saw closes, falling to 5.43 million – like a cherry!

Across the border, mouths were drawn up like a bow
With Canada’s October GDP as white as the snow;

The economy expanding 0.4% by the skin of its teeth,
And 16 of 20 sectors expanding like a wreath;

The loonie remained unmoved, with no one too jelly,

And the greenback fell slightly, still in the dollar-smile belly.

But currencies remained chubby and plump, every trader a right jolly old elf,

And I laughed when I saw this, in spite of myself;

A wink of Jerome Powell’s eye and a twist of his head,

Had given us all to know there was nothing to dread;

He spoke no clear forward guidance, but remained ready to work,

Filling all the stockings; and making every short-seller a jerk,

And laying his finger aside of his nose,

And giving a nod, asset prices would never see lows;

If he sprang to his sleigh, to the FOMC gave a whistle,

Cash would fall like the down of a thistle,

And I heard him exclaim, ere markets rose out of sight,

“Happy 2021 to all, and to all a good-night.”

 

Karl Schamotta
Chief Market Strategist
@vsualst

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